Growth plan for Earthling Co, 5 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Earthling Co already has "4.9/5 from 7987 reviews" and a $15.99 shampoo bar to lead with. The plan turns that into tested ads and creator videos, with one number to protect: a target CAC of $12.48.
- Target CAC
- $12.48
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: $12.48 CAC on a $15.99 shampoo bar
The number is a target CAC of $12.48. It comes from a $26 average order, a 40% margin and one repeat order: a ceiling of $20.80, held at 0.6 of that. The $26 sits between the $15.99 shampoo bar and the $31.98 bundle. Inputs are my guesses until I see your books.
Protect
Target CAC: $12.48 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $26 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $20.80. Guard line = 0.6 × $20.80 = $12.48. Across the ranges: $3.67 to $84.90.
Three moves
- Cut any concept whose CAC runs above $20.80 after its first test; the ceiling is the hard stop.
- Send paid traffic to landing pages that put "4.9/5 from 7987 reviews" above the $15.99 shampoo bar.
- Push toward the $31.98 shampoo and conditioner bundle so the average order moves above $26.
- reviews behind the site-wide 4.9/5
- 7987
- Published
- reviews on the Apple Pie bundle page
- 11
- Published
- shampoo bar price, the entry product
- $15.99
- Published
02 Variety
Each ad carries one Earthling fact: Apple Pie or 7987 reviews
Each concept carries one Earthling product, one price and one reason to try it. Apple Pie at $31.98 sells thickness, Dry Shampoo at $19.99 sells volume, and the Body Wash Bar Sampler at $10.99 is a low-priced way in. One variable changes per test.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Plastic-free bars | Get The Best Hair Of Your Life With A 100% Plastic-Free Shampoo Bar — Yes, Really. | 4 |
| 100-day guarantee | That's why we offer our 100-day guarantee. | 3 |
| No water filler | Your Old Shampoo was 80% Water. We Fixed That. | 3 |
| Cleaner ingredients | Non-Toxic, EWG-Vetted Soap Bars to Clean from Head to Toe. | 3 |
| Seven natural scents | Choose From Seven 100% Natural Scents | 3 |
| 4.9/5 from 7987 reviews | 4.9/5 from 7987 reviews | 1 |
| Results in four weeks | 95% saw improvement in hair health in 4 weeks. | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, two from Earthling's own guarantee and shipping lines
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site shows two guarantee windows: "100 day satisfaction guarantee." and "30-day happiness guarantee" | High | High | Your team | Claims sheet signed off before any ad runs; one window used in every ad |
| Two free-shipping lines: "Free Shipping on orders $45+" and "Free shipping on $55+" | Med | Med | Both | One threshold confirmed in week one; ads quote only that threshold |
| Apple Pie bundle page shows 11 reviews against 4.9/5 from 7987 site-wide | Med | Med | Me | Landing page beats the product page on conversion by day 14, or the review line is dropped |
| Event tracking is incomplete, so CAC cannot be read per ad | High | High | Your team | Purchase and subscription events verified with test orders before first spend |
| Creator output slips behind the plan of ten creators live by week six | Med | High | Me | Creators live match the weekly plan, or the next ad batch waits for footage |
| Early winners fade once spend scales past the test levels | Med | Med | Me | A winner holds $12.48 CAC for one full week at higher spend before it scales again |
| CAC lands at $25 or above and orders never repay it | Med | High | Both | Stop any ad set whose CAC sits above $20.80 for two straight reviews |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The ceiling is $20.80; the guard line sits at $12.48
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $26 (range $6.99–$62.89) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $20.80 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $12.48 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $26 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $20.80. Guard line = 0.6 × $20.80 = $12.48. Across the ranges: $3.67 to $84.90.
Range across the assumptions: $4 to $85.
The $26, 40% and one repeat order are my inputs, not Earthling facts. The $20.80 ceiling and $12.48 guard line follow from them. Week one replaces each input with your real numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests cost $24,000 before any scaling
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $12 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $12 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $12 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $12 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $12 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $12 |
Weeks one and two run twelve ads each at $250, $3,000 a week. Weeks three and four run twelve to twenty ads, $4,000 a week. Weeks five and six run twenty ads, $5,000 a week. Total tests: $24,000, Proposed. Every ad leads with one Earthling product, such as Apple Pie.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
Eighty concepts would add $72,000 if the winners hold
Twenty concepts give two winners and $18,000 added a month; eighty give eight winners and $72,000. Hit rate and spend per winner are my assumptions. Earthling's range of bars, bundles and serums gives enough angles to fill the volume.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
The $100,000 budget follows winners, not Earthling's catalog
- Creative tests: Apple Pie, Dry Shampoo, Scalp Serum ads
- $25,000
- 25%
- Creator pay and product seeding for ten creators
- $25,000
- 25%
- Scaling spend on winners that hold $12.48 CAC
- $40,000
- 40%
- Landing pages built around the 7987-review line
- $10,000
- 10%
Percentages are Proposed shares of the $100,000; scaling gets the largest slice because only winners holding $12.48 CAC earn more spend.
The math. 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 40% × $100,000 = $40,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first; every other channel waits for a winning hook
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week one: twelve ads on Apple Pie and the bars | Paid social is where I work, and creator videos feed it directly |
| TikTok | Once two creators are live and their videos exist | The same videos can run organic there with no extra shoot |
| Email and subscriptions | After the first orders, to test the Subscribe & Save 20% offer | Repeat orders sit inside the $20.80 ceiling and the site already offers it |
| Google search and shopping | After Meta holds $12.48 CAC for two weeks | Dry Shampoo for Volume & Strength gives a clear search term |
| Organic social | Week two, when the first two creators go live | Each video becomes a hook-library entry before it is paid |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback decides: $10 CAC returns the first order, $25 never
Payback is the real constraint. CAC $5 pays back on the first order with $15.80 left; CAC $10 does too, with $10.80 left. CAC $25 never pays back (−$4.20 left) and CAC $30 neither (−$9.20 left). Those get stopped. The $31.98 bundle is the lever that lifts the first order.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $10.40, $20.80.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5 | $10.40 | $20.80 | $15.80 | First order |
| $10 | $10.40 | $20.80 | $10.80 | First order |
| $25 | $10.40 | $20.80 | −$4.20 | Never: stop |
| $30 | $10.40 | $20.80 | −$9.20 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $5: $20.80 − $5 = $15.80 left; pays back: First order; CAC $10: $20.80 − $10 = $10.80 left; pays back: First order; CAC $25: $20.80 − $25 = −$4.20 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $30: $20.80 − $30 = −$9.20 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: ads, creators and pages, not Earthling's products
Covers
- Meta strategy and creative testing for Earthling products
- Creator sourcing, briefs and weekly video output
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings and monthly cohort payback reports
- A claims sheet drawn from your own site wording
Doesn’t
- Building event tracking: I spec it, your team implements it
- Product, formula and pricing decisions
- Fulfilment, shipping and customer support
- Health or ingredient claims beyond your own wording
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Tracked orders match store orders and at least one ad sits under $20.80 CAC | Tracking mismatches store orders, or no ad is under $20.80 CAC |
| Day 30 | A winner holds CAC at or below $12.48 for one full week | Every concept sits above $20.80 CAC after $14,000 of tests |
| Day 60 | CAC at or below $12.48 while weekly spend runs above the $5,000 test peak | CAC above $20.80 for two straight weekly reviews |
| Day 90 | Cohort payback shows the first order or a repeat covers CAC on the winning ads | Cohort payback never covers CAC at $25 or above |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| claims sheet | Two guarantee lines: 100 day and 30-day | One guarantee and one free-shipping line | 1st |
| creators | Products that film in a shower: bars, serum, Dry Shampoo | A creator roster built for these products | 2nd |
| creative | Dry Shampoo at $19.99 and Apple Pie bundle at $31.98 | A hook library and a first batch of tests | Week 1 |
| landing pages | The "4.9/5 from 7987 reviews" line on the site | Review line placed on the pages ads point to | 2nd |
| reporting | Subscribe & Save 20% offer to tag in cohorts | Daily CAC and monthly cohort payback tables | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 7987 reviews behind the site-wide 4.9/5 | https://theearthlingco.com/pages/best-hair-of-your-life-v2-copy | Fact |
| 11 reviews on the Apple Pie bundle page | https://theearthlingco.com/products/apple-pie-shampoo-and-conditioner-for-thickness-volume?variant=45760545587379 | Fact |
| $15.99 shampoo bar price, the entry product | https://theearthlingco.com/products/apple-pie-shampoo-bar | Fact |
| Product prices $6.99–$62.89 | product prices in the site product data (69 products), read 2026-10-05 | Fact |
| $26 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $12.48 target CAC | 0.6 of the $20.80 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $20.80 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 25% / 25% / 40% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
In week one I sign off one claims sheet with your team, spec the tracking events, brief the first two creators and build twelve ads on Apple Pie and Dry Shampoo. Spend starts at $3,000 for the week, Proposed, and the first daily CAC report lands the same week.